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Saturday 6 February 2016
Wednesday 3 February 2016
谷歌市值為何能超越蘋果?
美國當地時間2016年2月1日,一不小心被歷史銘記了,這一天,谷歌母公司Alphabet的市值超越了蘋果,成為全球市值最高的公司。這兩天不同的觀點已經通過不同的手法、角度呈現出來了。本文的奇巧之處在於,它是新浪科技常駐矽谷的高級記者鄭峻在蘋果和谷歌的老家寫就的這篇分析,要比國內的科技媒體、自媒體自嗨式的觀點多了一些理性和地道。本文原載於新浪科技,原標題為《谷歌市值為何能超蘋果?增長空間與業務邊界》。
隨着近期蘋果、微軟、谷歌等科技巨頭先後發布季度財報,股價走勢也發生了戲劇性的變化。周一發布財報之後,谷歌股價盤後交易中飆升6%,市值一度摸高到5540億美元,已經超過了蘋果。谷歌收盤上漲1.68%,報收於764.65美元,市值達到5258.7億美元。此消彼長,蘋果上周財報公布後股價一度暴跌7%,隨後幾個交易日繼續延續跌勢。蘋果股價今日下跌2.02%,報收於94.48美元,市值5238.5億美元。
過去一年蘋果股價顯著縮水
如果回顧過去一年的股價變化,這種走勢對比就顯得更加明顯。較之去年5月22日的歷史高點132.54美元,蘋果股價目前已經下滑了28.7%,市值蒸發了1500億美元。而谷歌則從上年同期的521美元一路飆升到目前的765美元左右,累計增長了46.8%,市值增加了2460億美元。
如果看2015年市盈率的話,蘋果市盈率只有10倍,谷歌則高達33倍。實際上,蘋果市盈率還不如標準普爾500指數成分股公司的平均水平。換句話說,投資者眼中的谷歌股票價值要比果值錢很多。
風水輪流轉,江山易主。回憶上一次谷歌市值高於蘋果的時候,還是在六年前的2010年初。當時蘋果CEO還是喬布斯,即將發布第一代iPad,iPhone產品還是3GS,Mac還是蘋果最大產品線,為蘋果貢獻了三分之一的營收。谷歌CEO還是施密特。在那個時候,微軟還是市值最高的科技公司,蘋果和谷歌市值都不到2000億美元。
過去五年谷歌股價一直在穩步攀升
隨後蘋果開始了令人震驚的飆升之路。2010年,蘋果超越微軟,成為全球市值最高的科技公司。2011年,蘋果超越埃克森美孚,成為全球市值最高的上市公司。2012年,蘋果市值首次突破5000億美元大關。2014年,蘋果市值一度突破7000億美元關口。而在這六年時間里,谷歌的股價雖然不像蘋果那般迅猛飆升,但始終處於穩步攀升的態勢。
那是什麼讓蘋果市值急劇增長又大幅縮水,又是什麼讓谷歌市值顯著增長,讓谷歌超越蘋果,坐上新一代市值霸主的位置?
這和業績有一定關係,但也並不完全取決於此。最近一個財季,蘋果實現凈營收758.7億美元,凈利潤183.6億美元;而谷歌實現營收213.3億美元,凈利潤49.2億美元。蘋果的營收和利潤都是谷歌的三倍以上。在掙錢能力上,蘋果依然是全球最無可企及的科技公司。按照目前的增長速度,或許未來五年谷歌依然無法在實際數據上超越蘋果。
但是,股價是股票市場供求關係的體現,反映了投資者對一家公司未來增長的預期。雖然蘋果當季業績依然驚人,但同比增長只有2%,營收低於市場預期,而最為關鍵的iPhone銷量增長更是陷入了停滯。雖然谷歌數據不如蘋果,但都明顯高於市場預期,增長幅度超過了兩位數,營收增長高達24%,最關鍵的廣告營收更是增長17%。
iPhone既是蘋果一路飆升成為全球市值巨頭的原因,也是過去一年市值顯著縮水的命門。蘋果從2010年開始快速飆升時,正是iPhone開始迅速擴大市場銷量和份額之際。2010財政年度iPhone全年銷量只有3998萬部,而2015財年全年銷量則超過2.3億部,增長了五倍以上。2014年發布的iPhone 6和6Plus讓iPhone銷量一度出現井噴式增長,當年第四季度甚至超過三星登頂全球智能手機銷量榜首。
然而,過於依賴iPhone也成為蘋果最大的問題,iPhone已經佔據蘋果68%的營收。在最近一個財季,iPhone銷量已經停止增長,全然沒有上年同期飆升38%的勢頭,而今年第一季度很可能會遭遇下滑的狀況。而目前的幾大產品線,iPad銷量已經顯著萎縮,上一財季大幅下滑25%;Mac銷量也隨着
C市場的整體衰退而下滑。軟件服務業務雖然增長26%,但營收占比不大。
雖然蘋果一直在努力拓展新業務,試圖降低對iPhone的依賴。但手錶市場剛剛起步,電視市場遲遲無法突破,汽車市場還需要籌備數年。現在蘋果依然無法擺脫「iPhone增長放緩,蘋果股價就下滑」的尷尬局面。2014年大屏iPhone帶來的銷量增長過於搶眼,也給蘋果後續的同比增幅帶來了巨大挑戰。去年發布的iPhone 6s和6s Plus由於升級幅度太小,無法延續上年同期的井噴式增長。
iPhone銷量增長陷入停滯
所以,當全球經濟整體局勢動蕩,增長引擎的中國經濟前景不明朗,智能手機發達市場趨於飽和,蘋果就面臨著缺乏增長空間的巨大難題。按照IDC的統計數據,去年第四季度蘋果全球市場佔有率較上年同期下滑了整整一個百分點。在市場看來,雖然蘋果iPhone依然大賣,但他們的業務已經見頂,除非iPhone 7能夠再次帶來顛覆式升級。而沒有增長空間的公司,其股價也必然下滑。
相比之下,谷歌去年順應了投資者的要求,對公司結構進行了重組,將盈利的核心業務和虧錢的新業務分開運營和單獨發布財報。2015財年,外界熟悉的谷歌業務(搜索廣告、Android、Youtube)實現盈利234.25億美元,而新業務部門則虧損35.67億美元。
與蘋果陷入增長困境不同,谷歌在搜索領域繼續保持着無可動搖的地位,其廣告營收還在不斷增長(最近一季增長17%)。根據eMarketer的統計,目前移動廣告市場,谷歌佔據了32%的市場份額,遠遠高於Facebook的20%。而iPhone增長乏力也意味着Android市場份額繼續擴大。更為重要的是,在光纖寬帶、無人車、氣球網絡、智能家居、健康設備等全新的領域,谷歌都已經進行了多年布局,並處在積極增長的勢頭中。未來數年將是谷歌的收穫季節。
同樣值得一提的是,中國經濟前景不明朗給蘋果增長前景蒙上了陰影,但對谷歌來說幾乎沒有影響。與中國市場顯著增長推動蘋果業績和股價飆升不同,過去六年谷歌業績和市值的穩步增長是在沒有中國大陸市場的前提下實現的。不過,谷歌服務計劃今年回歸中國大陸,短期內也難以給業績帶來明顯提升。
城頭變換大王旗。微軟也曾經擁有6000多億美元的估值,而取代微軟的蘋果也被谷歌所超越。谷歌能否持續超越蘋果,守住全球科技公司估值榜首的位置,短期來看並不清楚。不過,市值只體現了投資者眼中的增長價值,而不是一家公司的真正實力所在。只有持續創新,持續拓展邊界,才能讓一家科技公司保持增長,在多變的市場中,立於不變之地。
文章來源:虎嗅
Saturday 16 January 2016
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高盛:2016年针对亚洲经济体的八个问题
发表于2016-01-14
高盛在报告中预计,中国经济将经历曲折下行和出口疲软,且这将在2016 年对地区增长构成拖累。在这一环境下,即使油价触底反弹,亚洲地区的通胀压力应会维持在低位。大多数央行都不大可能追随美联储收紧政策。高盛预计未来几个月部分央行将进一步放松政策,其中包括东北亚全部主要经济体。
地区经济增速将在2016年加速吗?
不会。虽然我们预计一些小型经济体2016年的表现将更佳,但是中国经济增速将在2016年进一步放缓(预计为6.4%)。中国经济的放缓以及印度等经济体相对亮眼的表现将维持地区增速的稳定。
地区出口将继续疲软于经济增长吗?
是的。2012-2014年,亚洲地区的实际出口一直比GDP增长低0.5%。高盛预计,外部需求将仅小幅增长,而这一增长的进口强度相对较低。
通胀将会大幅回升 成为货币政策的限制吗?
不会(除了印度)。尽管油价不断下跌,但2016年通胀将有所反弹。但是,多数亚洲国家目前表现低于高盛对其潜在产出的预估,并且通胀低于预期。只有马来西亚的核心通胀近期高于历史平均水平。
新兴市场亚洲央行会追随美联储的脚步吗?
不会。高盛认为多数亚洲央行将会维持政策不变或进一步降息。在上个美联储加息周期中,多数亚洲央行跟随了美联储的脚步,但这并不是完全同步的,有的央行行动比美联储延迟了一年。
日本央行会进一步宽松吗?
是的。高盛预计,随着日元贬值的效应退散,日本的核心通胀和其他通胀指标将在2016年进一步下滑。日本央行对通胀上升的预期与现实之间的差距将变得大到难以忽略。高盛预计,日本央行将在2016年加码QQE。
亚洲出口国家将如何应对疲软的全球增长和贸易?
随着低利率以及货币的贬值,高盛预计韩国、中国台湾和泰国将进一步降息,并推动货币贬值。这三个经济体的出口与中国和日本高度相似。除了宽松货币政策,一些国家还将推动资本外流。韩国去年已经在资本外流自由化上取得了进展。
香港会放弃联系汇率制吗?
港元一直被视为香港金融稳定的基石。因为,放弃联系汇率制度对香港来说门槛很高。考虑到香港ZF多年来累计的巨额资金,香港将可以采取一系列财政刺激来抵御经济放缓,而不必改变汇率制度。对联系汇率制的忠诚将树立市场信心,降低市场的投机风险。香港金管局同样拥有大量资源来维护联系汇率制度。不过,高盛预计港元将在越来数月在其7.75-7.85的交易区间内走软。
人民币会进一步大幅贬值吗?
是的。在2016年年初,人民币中间价被大幅下调。2016年的前4个交易日,人民币中间价下跌近1%,从6.49降至6.56。政策制定者似乎正努力控制贬值预期,在1月8日上调了中间价。高盛指出,人民币将进一步贬值,考虑到经济的周期性疲软和资本流动机制的转变。高盛预计,到2016年年底,人民币对美元汇率将跌至7。这反映了中国政策制定者们对人民币对一篮子货币小幅贬值(2.5%)感到合适,以及美元将进一步走强的预期。
当然,高盛指出它的预期也存在风险,如果美元表现平淡或疲软,美元将兑人民币小幅贬值。而如果中国刺激措施有效,或持续时间较长,市场情绪将得到提振,支持人民币上涨。
而另一方面,中国经济的表现可能弱于我们的预期,外储的持续下滑可能刺激资本外流,让当局选择快速将人民币贬值到可以吸引资本流入的水平上。但我们认为这种风险是不对称的。高盛认为,近期人民币贬值的速度将是缓慢的。
Source from ; http://gold.jrj.com.cn/2016/01/12211420401188.shtml
Market Close STI ends 0.52% lower at 2,630.76
STI ends 0.52% lower at 2,630.76
January 15, 2016: 6:18 PM
Singapore equities nudged lower at the close on Friday, amidst broad declines in other Asian markets.
The Nikkei 225 Index shed 0.54%, while the KOSPI and Hang Seng Indices slipped 1.11% and 1.50% respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Indices tumbled 3.55% and 3.40% respectively.
The Straits Times Index (STI) ended the day 0.52% lower at 2,630.76, after trading between 2,626.81 and 2,663.34. Market breadth was negative. Excluding warrants, decliners outnumbered gainers 281 to 141.
A total of 1.93 billion shares worth about $ 1.09 billion changed hands, giving an average of 56 cents per share for the entire market.
Annica Holdings, LionGold Corp, Luzhou Bio-Chem Technology, Noble Group, and China Sports International were among the most actively traded counters.
Among STI components, Hutchison Port Holdings Trust rose 2% to 50 US cents, while Jardine Cycle & Carriage added 1.8% to $ 33.35. Meanwhile, Noble Group tumbled 3.3% to 29.5, while Yangzijiang Shipbuilding fell 2.6% to 92.5 cents.
Annica Holdings ended flat at 0.1 cent, despite a spike in trading volume. The manufacturer representative for a line of equipment for the oil and natural gas industry was queried by the Singapore Exchange over unusual trading activity in its shares.
Global Logistic Properties sank 1.5% to $ 1.925. The logistics facilities provider has signed three new lease agreements totalling 35,000 sq m in Greater Tokyo and Osaka.
Jumbo Group shed 4.3% to 45 cents. The food & beverage group has opened a third Jumbo Seafood outlet at the Shanghai International Finance Centre and plans to open at least three more outlets in China and Singapore in the next two years.
SingHaiyi Group tumbled 8% to 10.4 cents. The property developer was on Thursday queried by the Singapore Exchange over unusual trading activity in its shares. SingHaiyi has responded that its controlling shareholder, Haiyi Holdings, has been buying its shares from the open market and announcements It was made on a timely basis.
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January 15, 2016: 6:18 PM
Singapore equities nudged lower at the close on Friday, amidst broad declines in other Asian markets.
The Nikkei 225 Index shed 0.54%, while the KOSPI and Hang Seng Indices slipped 1.11% and 1.50% respectively. Meanwhile, the Shanghai and Shenzhen Composite Indices tumbled 3.55% and 3.40% respectively.
The Straits Times Index (STI) ended the day 0.52% lower at 2,630.76, after trading between 2,626.81 and 2,663.34. Market breadth was negative. Excluding warrants, decliners outnumbered gainers 281 to 141.
A total of 1.93 billion shares worth about $ 1.09 billion changed hands, giving an average of 56 cents per share for the entire market.
Annica Holdings, LionGold Corp, Luzhou Bio-Chem Technology, Noble Group, and China Sports International were among the most actively traded counters.
Among STI components, Hutchison Port Holdings Trust rose 2% to 50 US cents, while Jardine Cycle & Carriage added 1.8% to $ 33.35. Meanwhile, Noble Group tumbled 3.3% to 29.5, while Yangzijiang Shipbuilding fell 2.6% to 92.5 cents.
Annica Holdings ended flat at 0.1 cent, despite a spike in trading volume. The manufacturer representative for a line of equipment for the oil and natural gas industry was queried by the Singapore Exchange over unusual trading activity in its shares.
Global Logistic Properties sank 1.5% to $ 1.925. The logistics facilities provider has signed three new lease agreements totalling 35,000 sq m in Greater Tokyo and Osaka.
Jumbo Group shed 4.3% to 45 cents. The food & beverage group has opened a third Jumbo Seafood outlet at the Shanghai International Finance Centre and plans to open at least three more outlets in China and Singapore in the next two years.
SingHaiyi Group tumbled 8% to 10.4 cents. The property developer was on Thursday queried by the Singapore Exchange over unusual trading activity in its shares. SingHaiyi has responded that its controlling shareholder, Haiyi Holdings, has been buying its shares from the open market and announcements It was made on a timely basis.
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SHCI , SZCI Dive Over 3% at Closed HSI Dives 296pts; Developers , Financials Wilt
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets recorded a loss of 2.3%-3.5% today. Shanghai Composite Index hit the low at 2,883 and closed the day trading at 2,900, down 3.5%. Shenzhen Component Index hit the high/ low at 10,363/9,940 to close at 9,997, down nearly 3.4%. CSI 300 Index closed at 3,118, down 3%. ChiNext Index retreated nearly 2.9% to 2,112. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen bourses slightly decreased to RMB206.6 billion and RMB331.7 billion. In the past week, Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext and CSI 300 Index have tumbled nearly 9%, 8.2%, 6% and 7.2%.
HKD once fell to the low level of 7.79 today and the market is concerned about the capital outflow in Hong Kong. Hang Seng Index opened down 35 pts and the decline widened afterwards. It hit the low at 19,500 by falling 317 pts and last printed at 19,520, down 296 pts or 1.5%. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 223 pts or 2.6% to 8,236, hitting the new low for over four years. The market turnover amounted to $73.66 billion. Hong Kong banks softened. BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) and BANK OF E ASIA (00023.HK) faded 2.3% and 2.9%. HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK) slid 1.2%. HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) and AIA (01299.HK) dropped 0.4% and 0.6%. CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK) decreased 1% to $80.45. HKEX (00388.HK) lost 2.4%. TENCENT (00700.HK) held steady and only edged down 0.07% to $137. Local developers recorded a widened decline after the midday. HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) , SINO LAND (00083.HK) and CK PROPERTY (01113.HK) collapsed 2.7%, 2.7% and 2.9%. NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) and SHK PPT (00016.HK) tumbled more than 2%. Macau gaming stocks weakened after the midday too. SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) and GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) plunged 3.1% and 2%. Most of the blue chips turned down and the Chinese financials headed south. CITIC BANK (00998.HK) declined 3.5%. CCB (00939.HK) and ICBC (01398.HK) slid 1.9% and 2.4%. CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) plummeted 3%. CPIC (02601.HK) collapsed 4.9%. On the other hand, CC SECURITIES (01375.HK) leaped 3.7% and POU SHENG INT'L (03813.HK) rocketed 22%.
Source from AA Stocks
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https://telegram.me/hsigoreng
HKD once fell to the low level of 7.79 today and the market is concerned about the capital outflow in Hong Kong. Hang Seng Index opened down 35 pts and the decline widened afterwards. It hit the low at 19,500 by falling 317 pts and last printed at 19,520, down 296 pts or 1.5%. Hang Seng China Enterprises Index declined 223 pts or 2.6% to 8,236, hitting the new low for over four years. The market turnover amounted to $73.66 billion. Hong Kong banks softened. BOC HONG KONG (02388.HK) and BANK OF E ASIA (00023.HK) faded 2.3% and 2.9%. HANG SENG BANK (00011.HK) slid 1.2%. HSBC HOLDINGS (00005.HK) and AIA (01299.HK) dropped 0.4% and 0.6%. CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK) decreased 1% to $80.45. HKEX (00388.HK) lost 2.4%. TENCENT (00700.HK) held steady and only edged down 0.07% to $137. Local developers recorded a widened decline after the midday. HENDERSON LAND (00012.HK) , SINO LAND (00083.HK) and CK PROPERTY (01113.HK) collapsed 2.7%, 2.7% and 2.9%. NEW WORLD DEV (00017.HK) and SHK PPT (00016.HK) tumbled more than 2%. Macau gaming stocks weakened after the midday too. SANDS CHINA LTD (01928.HK) and GALAXY ENT (00027.HK) plunged 3.1% and 2%. Most of the blue chips turned down and the Chinese financials headed south. CITIC BANK (00998.HK) declined 3.5%. CCB (00939.HK) and ICBC (01398.HK) slid 1.9% and 2.4%. CHINA LIFE (02628.HK) plummeted 3%. CPIC (02601.HK) collapsed 4.9%. On the other hand, CC SECURITIES (01375.HK) leaped 3.7% and POU SHENG INT'L (03813.HK) rocketed 22%.
Source from AA Stocks
Telegram Channel:
https://telegram.me/hsigoreng
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